主要的宏观经济变量 Major Macroeconomic variable 宏观经济变量 Macroeconomic variables ◆产出、失业和通货膨胀,这些词语每天 都出现在报纸和晚间新闻里。 The words output, unemployment, and 第2章(教材2) inflation appears daily in newspapers and on the evening news. Chapter 02 总产出 总产出 Aggregate Output Aggregate Output ◆与其他帐户体系一样,国民收入帐户定义一些 概念,然后构造对应于这些概念的衡量指标 nineteenth century or during the grity in l Like any accounting system, the national n had income accounts define concepts, and then construct measures corresponding to these 是到产盘简亲餐大最产才汇出了国民收 was not until the end of world War ll that national ◆没有这一帐户,数字的相加就成为问题。 Without them that should add up do accounts, for short) were put together in maj countries. GDP、增加值和收入 GDP、增加值和收入 GDP, Value Added, and Income GDP, Value Added, and Income ◆在国民收入帐户中,总产出的衡量指标 ◆考虑一个经济中的GDP有三种方法 是国内生产总值,筒称GDP There are three ways of thinking about an economy’sGDP The measure of aggregate output in the ◆GDP是一 一个经济中所生产的最终产品 national income accounts is gross 与康务GDP的价值 domestic product, or GDP, for short GDP is the value of the final goods and services roduced in the economy during a given period. ◆GDP是一定时期内、一个经济中增加值之和 during a given period. GDP是一定时期内、一个经济中收入之和 GDP is the sum of incomes in the economy during a given period
1 宏观经济变量 Macroeconomic Variables 第2章（教材2） Chapter 02 主要的宏观经济变量 Major Macroeconomic Variable 产出、失业和通货膨胀，这些词语每天 都出现在报纸和晚间新闻里。 The words output, unemployment, and inflation appears daily in newspapers and on the evening news. 总产出 Aggregate Output 在十九世纪早期，以及在大萧条期间，研究经济活动 的经济学家们根本没有可靠的整体经济活动的衡量方 法。 Economists studying economic activity in the nineteenth century or during the Great Depression had no measure of aggregate(total) activity on which to rely. 直到二战结束后，在主要国家里，才汇总出了国民收 入与产品帐户（简称国民收入帐户）。 It was not until the end of World War II that national income and product accounts (or national income accounts, for short) were put together in major countries. 总产出 Aggregate Output 与其他帐户体系一样，国民收入帐户定义一些 概念，然后构造对应于这些概念的衡量指标。 Like any accounting system, the national income accounts define concepts, and then construct measures corresponding to these concepts. 没有这一帐户，数字的相加就成为问题。 Without them, numbers that should add up do not. GDP、增加值和收入 GDP, Value Added, and Income 在国民收入帐户中，总产出的衡量指标 是国内生产总值，简称GDP。 The measure of aggregate output in the national income accounts is gross domestic product, or GDP, for short. GDP、增加值和收入 GDP, Value Added, and Income 考虑一个经济中的GDP有三种方法： There are three ways of thinking about an economy’s GDP: GDP是一定时期内、一个经济中所生产的最终产品 与服务GDP的价值。 GDP is the value of the final goods and services produced in the economy during a given period. GDP是一定时期内、一个经济中增加值之和。 GDP is the sum of value added in the economy during a given period. GDP是一定时期内、一个经济中收入之和。 GDP is the sum of incomes in the economy during a given period
GDP:最终产品法 GDP:最终产品法 GDP: Final Goods Approach GDP: Final Goods Approach ◆关键词是最终。 企业1:钢厂Fm1: Steel Company The important word is final 销收入 Revenues from sales ◆例子:假设一个经济仅有两个企业组成 支出(工资) Expenses(wages) 利润Prot「GDP是多少 What is GDP s310或or$210 An example: Suppose that the economy is 企业2:汽车厂Frm2: Car Company composed of just two firms. 销售收入 Revenues from sales s170 购买钢 Steel purchases 利润 Profit s40 GDP:最终产品法 GDP:增加值法 GDP: Final Goods Approach GDP: Value Added Approach ◆因为钢是中间产品用来生产最终产品(汽 车)的产品,因而不应该被记入GDP一最终 ◆一个企业在生产过程中产生的增加值,被定义 成它产出的价值减去在它生产中使用的中间物 产品。 品的价值 ecause steel is an intermediate good, a good in the production of the final good, cars, The value added by a firm in the production and thus should not be counted in GDP-the process is defined as the value of its production value of final output minus the value of the intermediate goods it ◆另一个考虑的方法是设想两个企业合并后会发 uses in production. alue added Another way to think of this is to imagine what happens when the two firms merge. value of production- value of intermediate goods GDP:增加值法 GDP:最终产品法与增加值法 GDP: Value Added Approach GDP: Final Good vs Value Added Approach ◆在两企业的例子中 In the two- firm example ◆这两种定义隐含地说明了,最终物品与 ◆钢厂 Steel 服务的价值(方法1)也可以被看成是这 ◆没有中间物品 No intermediate goods 些最终物品生产链上的所有企业的增加 ●增加值 Value added=SI 值之和(方法2) ●汽车Cars The two definitions imply that the value ◆中间物品(钢) Intermediate goods(stee=S10 of final goods and services(the first ◆增加值 Value added=S210-5100=S110 approach) can also be thought of as the GDP ($210 sum of the value added by all firms along the chain of production of those final Value added steel (S100)+ value added cars($110) goods( the second approach)
2 GDP：最终产品法 GDP: Final Goods Approach 关键词是最终。 The important word is final. 例子：假设一个经济仅有两个企业组成 …… An example: Suppose that the economy is composed of just two firms …… GDP：最终产品法 GDP: Final Goods Approach 企业1：钢厂 Firm 1: Steel Company 销售收入 Revenues from sales $100 支出（工资）Expenses (wages) $80 利润 Profit $20 企业2：汽车厂 Firm 2: Car Company 销售收入 Revenues from sales $210 支出 Expenses $170 工资 Wages $70 购买钢 Steel purchases $100 利润 Profit $40 GDP是多少 What is GDP? $310 或or $210 GDP：最终产品法 GDP: Final Goods Approach 因为钢是中间产品——用来生产最终产品（汽 车）的产品，因而不应该被记入GDP——最终 产品。 Because steel is an intermediate good, a good used in the production of the final good, cars, and thus should not be counted in GDP – the value of final output. 另一个考虑的方法是设想两个企业合并后会发 生什么。 Another way to think of this is to imagine what happens when the two firms merge. GDP：增加值法 GDP: Value Added Approach 一个企业在生产过程中产生的增加值，被定义 成它产出的价值减去在它生产中使用的中间物 品的价值。 The value added by a firm in the production process is defined as the value of its production minus the value of the intermediate goods it uses in production. Value added = value of production - value of intermediate goods GDP：增加值法 GDP: Value Added Approach 在两企业的例子中 In the two-firm example: 钢厂 Steel 没有中间物品 No intermediate goods 增加值 Value added = $100 汽车 Cars 中间物品（钢）Intermediate goods (steel) = $100 增加值 Value added = $210 - $100 = $110 Value added steel ($100) value added cars ($110) GDP ($210) + = GDP：最终产品法与增加值法 GDP: Final Good vs. Value Added Approach 这两种定义隐含地说明了，最终物品与 服务的价值（方法1）也可以被看成是这 些最终物品生产链上的所有企业的增加 值之和（方法2）。 The two definitions imply that the value of final goods and services (the first approach) can also be thought of as the sum of the value added by all firms along the chain of production of those final goods (the second approach)
GDP:收入法 GDP:收入法 GDP: Income Approach GDP: Income Approach ◆到目前为止,我们都是从产出方来看 ◆考虑一个企业支付中间产品后剩下的收益: Think about the revenue left to a firm after it GDP。 has paid for intermediate goods We have looked so far at GDP from the production side. 我收益以对销售征税的方式被政府获得,这样的 enues are collected by th ◆看待GDP的第三种方法是从收入方来看 axes are called indirect taxes ◆一些收益付给工人一这一部分被称作劳动收入 A third way of looking at GDP is from the income side component is called labor income. ◆余下的进入企业—这一部分被称作度本收入。 The rest goes to the firm- that component is called GDP:收入法 GDP:收入法 GDP: Income Approach GDP: Income Approach ● Income(ste)● Income(car) Income(whole) ◆从收入方看企业,增加值就是间接税 Labors S80◆ Labor=S70◆ Labor -S150(71%) 劳动收入和资本收入之和 e Capital-S20. Capital- S40.Capital-s 60(29%) Looking at the firm from the income side. SIlO value added is the sum of indirect taxes. GDP( ncome)=$100+$110=$210 labor income, and capital income. GDP (income)=indirect taxes tabor income GDP(valueadded--$210)= capital income 美国按收入分类的GDP构成(1960和1998年) 名义和实际GDP The Composition of GDP by Type of Income, 1960and1998 Nominal and real gdp ◆名义GDP是生产的最终产品的数量乘以它们的 In percent 1960 1998 当期价格再求和。 Labor income 66%65% Nominal GDP is the sum of the quantities of final goods produced times their current price. Capital income 26%27% ◆名义GDP随时间上升的原因有两种 Nominal gDP increases over time for two reasons. ◆大多数产品的产量随时间上升 The production of most goods increases over time. ●大多数产品的价格也随时间上升。 The prices of most goods also increases over time
3 GDP：收入法 GDP: Income Approach 到目前为止，我们都是从产出方来看 GDP。 We have looked so far at GDP from the production side. 看待GDP的第三种方法是从收入方来看 。 A third way of looking at GDP is from the income side. GDP：收入法 GDP: Income Approach 考虑一个企业支付中间产品后剩下的收益： Think about the revenue left to a firm after it has paid for intermediate goods. 一些收益以对销售征税的方式被政府获得，这样的 税被称作间接税。 Some of the revenues are collected by the government in the form of taxes on sales – such taxes are called indirect taxes. 一些收益付给工人——这一部分被称作劳动收入。 Some of the revenues go to pay workers – this component is called labor income. 余下的进入企业——这一部分被称作资本收入。 The rest goes to the firm – that component is called capital income. GDP：收入法 GDP: Income Approach 从收入方看企业，增加值就是间接税、 劳动收入和资本收入之和。 Looking at the firm from the income side, value added is the sum of indirect taxes, labor income, and capital income. capital income labor income GDP (income) indirect taxes + + = GDP：收入法 GDP: Income Approach Income (steel) Labor = $80 Capital = $20 $100 Income (car) Labor = $70 Capital = $40 $110 valueaddedcar($110) GDP(valueadded--$210) valueaddedsteel($100) + = Compared to: GDP (income) = $100 + $110 = $210 Income (whole) Labor = $150(71%) Capital = $ 60(29%) $210(100%) 美国按收入分类的GDP构成（1960和1998年） The Composition of GDP by Type of Income, 1960 and 1998 Labor income 66% 65% Capital income 26% 27% Indirect taxes 8% 8% In Percent 1960 1998 名义和实际GDP Nominal and Real GDP 名义GDP是生产的最终产品的数量乘以它们的 当期价格再求和。 Nominal GDP is the sum of the quantities of final goods produced times their current price. 名义GDP随时间上升的原因有两种： Nominal GDP increases over time for two reasons. 大多数产品的产量随时间上升。 The production of most goods increases over time. 大多数产品的价格也随时间上升。 The prices of most goods also increases over time
名义和实际GDP 名义和实际GDP:单一产品经济 Nominal and Real GDP Nominal and Real gDP ne (oo conomy ◆如果我们想衡量的是产量及其变动,我们就需 年份汽车数量汽车价格名义GDP 要消除价格上升的影响 Year quantity price of Nominal GDP If our intention is to measure production and fCarsCars(%上升 ts change over time, we need to eliminate the increase) effect of increasing prices. 199110 s10,000s1000 ◆因此我们将实际GDP构造成最终产品数量乘以 Thats why real GDP is constructed as the sum 199212 s12,000s144000 of the quantities of final goods times constant rather than current) prices. 19313 s13000s169,000 (16%) 名义和实际GDP:单一产品经济 义和买际GDP: 品经 Nominal and Real gDP: Nominal and Real GDP One Good Economy One Good Economy ◆如何定义实际GDP? 年份汽车数量汽车价格名义GDP以199年美元 How should we define real GDP? r Quantity Price of 量的实际 of Cars Cars ●可以定义成汽车的数量。 Real gDP in We can define it as the number of cars 1992 Dollars ◆或者用一个共同的价格来乘汽车的数量,例如 I(% increase 用1992年汽车价格 199110 Or we can define it by multiplying the number s100500005200 of cars in each year by a common price, say, the 199212 s12,000|s144.00s144000 price of a car in 1992. 方法实际上给出了以92年美元量的实际 (44%) 199313 s3,00s169,000 s156,000 The approach gives us in effect real GDP in 1992 (16% 名义和实际GDP:单一产品经济 名义和实际GDP:多产品经济 Nominal and Real GDP: Nominal and Real GDP: One Good Economy Multi-Good Economy ◆如果我们用1993年价格来衡量实际GDP,结果 ◆当最终产品数量不只一种时,实际GDP必须定 会怎样? 的加严均。这就导致 What if we decided to measure real GDP in 993 prices? When there is more than one final good, real ◆实际GDP的水平值会不同,但其逐年的增长率 GDP must be defined as a the output of all final goods, which brings th 不变 The level of real gDP would be different, but ◆物品的相对价格看起来是理所应当的权重 s increase from year to year would be the Relative prices of the goods would appear to be same as above natur al weights
4 名义和实际GDP Nominal and Real GDP 如果我们想衡量的是产量及其变动，我们就需 要消除价格上升的影响。 If our intention is to measure production and its change over time, we need to eliminate the effect of increasing prices. 因此我们将实际GDP构造成最终产品数量乘以 不变（而非当期）价格再求和。 That’s why real GDP is constructed as the sum of the quantities of final goods times constant (rather than current) prices. 名义和实际GDP：单一产品经济 Nominal and Real GDP: One Good Economy $169,000 (16%) 1993 13 $13,000 $144,000 (44%) 1992 12 $12,000 1991 10 $10,000 $100,000 名义GDP Nominal GDP (% 上升 increase) 汽车价格 Price of Cars 汽车数量 Quantity of Cars 年份 Year 名义和实际GDP：单一产品经济 Nominal and Real GDP: One Good Economy 如何定义实际GDP？ How should we define real GDP? 可以定义成汽车的数量。 We can define it as the number of cars. 或者用一个共同的价格来乘汽车的数量，例如 ，用1992年汽车价格。 Or we can define it by multiplying the number of cars in each year by a common price, say, the price of a car in 1992. 这一方法实际上给出了以1992年美元衡量的实际 GDP。 The approach gives us in effect real GDP in 1992 dollars. 名义和实际GDP：单一产品经济 Nominal and Real GDP: One Good Economy $156,000 (8%) $169,000 (16%) 1993 13 $13,000 $144,000 (20%) $144,000 (44%) 1992 12 $12,000 1991 10 $10,000 $100,000 $120,000 以1992年美元 衡量的实际 GDP Real GDP in 1992 Dollars (% increase) 名义GDP Nominal GDP (% increase) 汽车价格 Price of Cars 汽车数量 Quantity of Cars 年份 Year 名义和实际GDP：单一产品经济 Nominal and Real GDP: One Good Economy 如果我们用1993年价格来衡量实际GDP，结果 会怎样？ What if we decided to measure real GDP in 1993 prices? 实际GDP的水平值会不同，但其逐年的增长率 不变。 The level of real GDP would be different, but its increase from year to year would be the same as above. 名义和实际GDP：多产品经济 Nominal and Real GDP: Multi-Good Economy 当最终产品数量不只一种时，实际GDP必须定 义成所有最终产品产出的加权平均。这就导致 一个问题：权重应该时多少？ When there is more than one final good, real GDP must be defined as a weighted average of the output of all final goods, which brings the question of what the weights should be. 物品的相对价格看起来是理所应当的权重。 Relative prices of the goods would appear to be the natural weights
名义和实际GDP:多产品经济 Nominal and Real gDP: 美国的名义与实际GDP Real U.s. gdp Multi-Good Economy ◆不过,如果相对价格随时间改变(这种情况经常发生 hat if, as often the case, relative prices change over 国定一年(基年)的相对价格作为权 极置时两欲变 Change the weisebtsoser ti 际GDP的衡量指标被称作 (1992)美元 The measure of real gDP in the U.S. national income accounts is called real GDP in chained(1992)dollars, a form of the latter He-e 名义和实际的同义词 GDP增长 Synonyms of Nominal and Real GDP GDP Growth ◆名义GDP(表示为sF) Nominal GDP GDP在第年的增长率是指实际GDP在第年的 ◆美元 gdP dollar gdp 变化率 ◆以现价衡量的 GDP GDP in current dollars GDP growth in year t will refer to the rate of ◆实际GDP(表示为) Real gdp hange of real GDP in vear t ◆以实物衡量的 GDP GDP in terms of goods ◆以不变价衡量的 GDP GDP in constant GDP growth(%)=100%o*(Ye Yi/1 ◆通货膨胀调整的 GDP GDP adjusted for GDP增长 实际GDP,技术进步与计算机价格 GDP Growth Real GDP, Technological Progress, and the Price of Computers ◆GDP正增长的时期被成为扩张期。 ◆计算实际GDF 问题是如何对待已有 eriods of positive GDP growth are called 品的质量变 spansion A tough problem in computing real GDPis ◆GDP负增长的时期被称作衰退期 dealing with changes in quality in existing Periods of negative GDP growth are called goods. One of the most difficult cases is ◆只在经济至少持续两个季度负增长时才用这个词 ◆我们能够假设1 Macroeconomists usually use the word only if the 同户品每个人计算机和13 economy goes through at least two consecutive Should we assume that a personal computer in uarters of negative growt 1999 is the same good as a computer produced in1987
5 名义和实际GDP：多产品经济 Nominal and Real GDP: Multi-Good Economy 不过，如果相对价格随时间改变（这种情况经常发生 ），又该怎么办？ What if, as often the case, relative prices change over time? 固定一年（基年）的相对价格作为权重 Choose the relative prices in a given year (base year) as weights 权重随时间改变 Change the weights over time 在美国国民收入帐户中，实际GDP的衡量指标被称作 以环比（1992）美元衡量的实际GDP，为后者的一种 形式。 The measure of real GDP in the U.S. national income accounts is called real GDP in chained (1992) dollars, a form of the latter. 美国的名义与实际GDP Real U.S. GDP 名义和实际的同义词 Synonyms of Nominal and Real GDP 名义GDP(表示为$Yt ) Nominal GDP 美元GDP dollar GDP 以现价衡量的GDP GDP in current dollars 实际GDP(表示为Yt ) Real GDP 以实物衡量的GDP GDP in terms of goods 以不变价衡量的GDP GDP in constant dollars 通货膨胀调整的GDP GDP adjusted for inflation GDP增长 GDP Growth GDP在第t年的增长率是指实际GDP在第t年的 变化率。 GDP growth in year t will refer to the rate of change of real GDP in year t. GDP growth (%) = 100%*(Yt -Yt-1)/Yt-1 GDP增长 GDP Growth GDP正增长的时期被成为扩张期。 Periods of positive GDP growth are called expansion. GDP负增长的时期被称作衰退期。 Periods of negative GDP growth are called recession. 只在经济至少持续两个季度负增长时才用这个词。 Macroeconomists usually use the word only if the economy goes through at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth. 实际GDP，技术进步与计算机价格 Real GDP, Technological Progress, and the Price of Computers 计算实际GDP的一个棘手问题是如何对待已有 物品的质量变化。尤其是计算机。 A tough problem in computing real GDP is dealing with changes in quality in existing goods. One of the most difficult cases is computers. 我们能够假设1999年的一台个人计算机和1987 年的计算机是同样的产品吗？ Should we assume that a personal computer in 1999 is the same good as a computer produced in 1987?