TextSo while the probability ofbeing made redundant on any particular day and theprobability of being sick may both be small, the chanceof both occurring is almost certainly higher than theproduct of the two probabilities.Mapreading misfortunesSo much for the general incidents of bad luck which11crop up in life. Let's get on to a specific one thateveryone has encountered.Translation
So while the probability of being made redundant on any particular day and the probability of being sick may both be small, the chance of both occurring is almost certainly higher than the product of the two probabilities. Map reading misfortunes 11 So much for the general incidents of bad luck which crop up in life. Let’s get on to a specific one that everyone has encountered. Text
TextYou are off to visit a friend who lives at the other12end of the city. You look up the road in the street atlasand discover that it is right on the edge of the page.This means that finding the precise route becomes achore of flicking backwards and forwards from onepage to the next. Either the road is half on one pageand half on the other, or it's spread across the fold inthe middle of the book. And if it's an ordnance surveymap, then your destination is at just the point whereyou folded the map over.Translation
12 You are off to visit a friend who lives at the other end of the city. You look up the road in the street atlas, and discover that it is right on the edge of the page. This means that finding the precise route becomes a chore of flicking backwards and forwards from one page to the next. Either the road is half on one page and half on the other, or it's spread across the fold in the middle of the book. And if it’s an ordnance survey map, then your destination is at just the point where you folded the map over. Text
日TextIt doesn't seem fair. After all a map only has a13tiny bit of “edge” but plenty of “middle" in which yourdestination could be situated. Or has it? In fact thechance of picking a destination which is close to theedge of the map is a lot higher than you might expect.Translation
13 It doesn’t seem fair. After all a map only has a tiny bit of “edge” but plenty of “middle” in which your destination could be situated. Or has it? In fact the chance of picking a destination which is close to the edge of the map is a lot higher than you might expect. Text
日TextTake a look at the map in the diagram14510cm20cmcmYou will have a problem if your destination is anywherein the shaded area marked on the map. This shadedarea is iust 1 cm into the page all the way around. Itlooks insignificant. However, the shaded area addsupto 56 cm2.More...Translation
14 Take a look at the map in the diagram. You will have a problem if your destination is anywhere in the shaded area marked on the map. This shaded area is just 1 cm into the page all the way around. It looks insignificant. However, the shaded area adds up to 56 cm2 . Text
TextThat represents 28 per cent of the areaof the whole page of the map, which means that anyspecific point that you are seeking on this map has a28 per cent chance (that's nearly one in three) of beingin an awkward position within 1 cm of the edge of thepage. And if you regard being within 2 cm of the edgeof the page as being awkward, the chance of ill-fortuneclimbs to 52 per cent. In other words, you might expectthis misfortune to occur on almost every other journey.Translation>
That represents 28 per cent of the area of the whole page of the map, which means that any specific point that you are seeking on this map has a 28 per cent chance (that's nearly one in three) of being in an awkward position within 1 cm of the edge of the page. And if you regard being within 2 cm of the edge of the page as being awkward, the chance of ill-fortune climbs to 52 per cent. In other words, you might expect this misfortune to occur on almost every other journey. Text