The analysis and Forecast of Chinese Population nstructor:王凯波 Group Members:李文华2009210538 杨丽丹2009210561 宋芹2009210568 杨春晖2009220200 自强不息,厚德载物- E@Applied Statistics, Group Report ③
--自强不息，厚德载物-- IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report 1 The Analysis and Forecast of Chinese Population Group Members: 李文华 2009210538 杨丽丹 2009210561 宋 芹 2009210568 杨春晖 2009220200 Instructor: 王凯波
OUTLINE PaRT 1: Introduction(Background, Objective, Terminology PART 2: Descriptive Analysis PART 3: Hypothesis Test of Male-Female Birth Rate (Descriptive date, Exploratory date, Cause analysis) PART 4: Fertility Comparison (Descriptive date, Exploratory date, Cause analysis) PART 5: Analysis of Ratio (Descriptive date, Exploratory date, Cause analysis) PART 6: Analysis of Dead Rate (Descriptive date, Exploratory date, Cause analysis) PART 7: Time Series Analysis of Total Population Size (Trend analysis, Model based analysis PART 3: Conclusion 自强不息,厚德载物- IE( @Applied Statistics, Group Report
--自强不息，厚德载物-- IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report 2 OUTLINE PART 1:Introduction (Background, Objective, Terminology ) PART 2:Descriptive Analysis PART 3:Hypothesis Test of Male-Female Birth Rate (Descriptive date, Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 4:Fertility Comparison (Descriptive date , Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 5:Analysis of Ratio (Descriptive date , Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 6:Analysis of Dead Rate (Descriptive date , Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 7:Time Series Analysis of Total Population Size (Trend analysis, Model based analysis) PART 8: Conclusion
INTRODUCTION--Background Before 1950 China had demographic characteristics of a pre- modern society with high dead rates and high fertility rates. this situation produced certain stability in population size or, at least leads to a slow increase After the foundation of The People,s Republic of China in 1949 China entered its demographic transition first dead rates began to fall rapidly and second fertility remained for many years at about an average of six children per woman as a result of this China experienced rapid population growth due to the high number of children born, a sharp decline of baby dead rate 自强不息,厚德载物- E(@Applied Statistics, Group Report ③
--自强不息，厚德载物-- IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report 3 INTRODUCTION--Background ◼ Before 1950 China had demographic characteristics of a premodern society with high dead rates and high fertility rates. This situation produced certain stability in population size or, at least, leads to a slow increase. ◼ After the foundation of The People’s Republic of China in 1949, China entered its demographic transition: first dead rates began to fall rapidly and second, fertility remained for many years at about an average of six children per woman. As a result of this China experienced rapid population growth due to the high number of children born, a sharp decline of baby dead rate
INTRODUCTION-China Population Development China Population Development 1982 1953 清(AD1911) 清(AD1840) 清(AD1800) 明(AD1600) 宋元(AD1100) 隋唐 魏晋 汉 春秋战国 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 12000]ersons 自强不息,厚德载物- IE( @Applied Statistics, Group Report ③
--自强不息，厚德载物-- IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report 4 INTRODUCTION-China Population Development China Population Development 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 春秋战国 秦 汉 魏 晋 隋 唐 宋元（AD 1100） 明 （AD 1600） 清 （AD 1800） 清 （AD 1840） 清 （AD 1911） 1953 1977 1982 Population (10k persons)
INTRODUCTION-China Population Today Now China has a population over 1.3 billion(2007), that is nearly 1/5 the world population 中国人口自然密度分布 人口自然密度 (每平方千米人口数) 400人以上 100-400 11人以下 Most of the population are in the east (94%), which are more developed, and enjoying a relatively lower dead rate, and a lower baby dead rate 黑河一腾冲人口地理界线 中国人口地理大区的面积、人口比重 们常海将岛 令地理大区点个国而点含国B人 口线以东地区43 6 自强不息,厚德载物- IE( @Applied Statistics, Group Report
--自强不息，厚德载物-- IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report 5 INTRODUCTION-China Population Today Now China has a population over 1.3 billion (2007), that is nearly 1/5 the world population. Most of the population are in the east (94%), which are more developed, and enjoying a relatively lower dead rate, and a lower baby dead rate