本次课程主要内容 1.课程介绍 2.社会研究方法——方法论 3.研究方法 4.统计分析方法 5.调查研究的应用领域 6.数据处理 7.课程安排 8.参考资料

过去十几年间最优化理论与方法发展十分迅速。最优化方法在 数学上是一种求极值的方法,它是应用数学的一个分支,现在它已 渗透到科学、技术、工程、经济各领域。 实际上人们做任何一件事,不管是分析问题,还是进行综合、 作出决策,都要用一种标准衡量一下是否达到了最优在科学实 验、生产技术改进、工程设计,和在生产计划管理、社会经济问题 中,人们总希望采取种种措施,以便在有限的资源条件下或规定的 约束条件下得到最满意的效果

案例1 CHERIE化妆品有限公司：美容分公司 案例2 威尔森燃料公司 案例3 太平洋西方航空公司：面临沟通困境 案例4 皇家信托:成功的合作伙伴 案例5 惠灵顿保险公司：员工沟通 案例6 斯特灵药品有限公司 案例7 用户燃气公司:液化天然气厂(A) 案例8 阿尔伯莱特 & 威尔逊•艾莫瑞克斯磷酸盐厂 案例9 普罗维格分销公司 案例10 诺伦达：环境通信(A) 案例11 英韦尔莱特金融集团 案例12 弥垂姆公司与越南石油公司的合资

１．外汇市场的由来与发展２．外汇市场全球网络的形成与交易方式３．汇率与利率的关系４．影响外汇市场走势的短期因素５．工业国家之间的政策协调与外汇行市的波动６．政府对外汇市场的直接干预７．欧洲货币体系漫谈８．外汇市场心理行为分析９．外汇市场的风险控制１０．外汇市场投资高手经验谈

Eco514 Game Theory Problem Set 5: Due Tuesday, November 23 From OR:226.1,227.1,229.1,237.1,243.1 For 243.1, also prove that the reputational equilibrium is sequential

Eco514 Game Theory Problem Set 4: Due Tuesday, November 9 1. Machines Extend Proposition 151.1 (the Perfect Folk Theorem with discounting) to arbitrary mixtures of payoff profiles of the original game G =(, (A Ui) ) Allow for both rational and real weights on the set of profiles {u(a): a E A}; note that the statement of the result will involve an approximation of the payoff profile

Eco514 Game Theory Problem Set 3: Due Thursday, October 28 1. Asymmetric Auctions Consider an interdependent-values auction with two bidders, each of whom observes an i.i.d uniform signal E [0, 1]. Bidder i's valuation for the object is equal to vi

Eco514 Game Theory Problem Set 2: Due Thursday, October 14 Recall the following definitions: in any model M=(, (Ti, a: )eN), Ri is the event \Player i is rational\; R ien. Also, (E) is the event \Player i is certain that E is true\ and(E) NieN B (). This is as in Lecture 7

Eco514 Game Theory Problem Set 1: Due Friday, September 30 oTE: On the“ethics”of problem sets Some of the theoretical exercise I will assign are actually well-known results; in other cases, you may be able to find the answer in the literature. This is certainly the case for the current problem set. My position on this issue is that, basically, if you look up the answer somewhere, it's your problem. After all, you can buy answer keys to most textbooks... The fact is, you will not

Eco514 Game Theory The Trembling Hand: Normal-Form Analysis and Extensive-Form Implications Marciano Siniscalchi January 10, 2000 Introduction: Invariance In their seminal contribution, Von Neumann and Morgenstern argue that the normal form of a game contains all \strategically relevant\ information. This view, note well, does not invalidate or trivialize extensive-form analysis; rather, it leads those who embrace it to be suspicious of extensive-form solution concepts which yield different predictions in distinct