一、中国居民人均消费模型 二、时间序列问题

一、条件均值E(Y=X或个值Y的一个无偏估计 二、总体条件均值与个值预测值的置信区间

一、拟合优度检验 二、变量的显著性检验 三、参数的置信区间

一、一元线性回归模型的基本假设 二、参数的普通最小二乘估计（OLS） 三、参数估计的最大或然法(ML) 四、最小二乘估计量的性质 五、参数估计量的概率分布及随机干扰项方差的估计

1 An Excursion into Non-linearity land Motivation: the linear structural (and time series) models cannot explain a number of important features common to much financial data

1 Stationarity and unit Root testing WHy do we need to test for Non-Stationarity? The stationarity or otherwise of a series can strongly influence its behaviour and properties -e.g. persistence of shocks will be infinite for nonstationary series Spurious regressions. If two variables are trending over

1 Motivations All the models we have looked at thus far have been single equations models of the form y=XB+u All of the variables con

1 introduction 单变量时间序列模型 一只利用变量的过去信息和可能的误差项的当前和过去值来建模和预测 的一类模型(设定)

1 Goodness of Fit Statistics We would like some measure of how well our regression model actually fits the data.* We have goodness of fit statistics to test this: i.e. how well the sample regression function (srf) fits the data. The most common goodness of fit statistic is known as R2. One

1 Regression Regression is probably the single most important tool at the econometrician's disposal. What is regression analysis? It is concerned with describing and evaluating the relationship between a given variable (usually called the dependent variable) and one or more other