Ch. 15 Forecasting Having considered in Chapter 14 some of the properties of ARMA models, we now show how they may be used to forecast future values of an observed time series. For the present we proceed as if the model were known ecactly Forecasting is an important concept for the studies of time series analysis. In the scope of regression model we usually

Ch. 14 Stationary ARMA Process a general linear stochastic model is described that suppose a time series to be generated by a linear aggregation of random shock. For practical representation it is desirable to employ models that use parameters parsimoniously. Parsimony may often be achieved by representation of the linear process in terms of a small number of autoregressive and moving

Ch. 13 Difference Equations 1 First-Order Difference Equations Suppose we are given a dynamic equation relating the value y takes on at date t to another variables Wt and to the value y took in the previous period: where o is a constant. Equation(1)is a linear first-order difference equation a difference equation is an expression relating a variable yt to its previous values

Ch. 12 Stochastic Process 1 Introduction a particularly important aspect of real observable phenomena, which the random variables concept cannot accommodate, is their time dimension; the concept of random variable is essential static. A number of economic phenomena for which we need to formulate probability models come in the form of dynamic processes

Ch. 11 Panel Data model Data sets that combine time series and cross sections are common in econo- metrics. For example, the published statistics of the OECD contain numerous series of economic aggregate observed yearly for many countries. The PSID is a studies of roughly 6000 families and 15000 individuals who has been interviews periodically from 1968 to the present

Ch. 10 Autocorrelated Disturbances In a time-series setting, a common problem is autocorrelation, or serial corre- lation of the disturbance across periods. See the plot of the residuals at Figure

随着科技文化的不断发展,智力成果一一知识产权的保 护问题已越来越受到世界各国的重视。科技文化的发展和科 技文化市场的繁荣,需要有健全的知识产权法规加以规范,而 知识产权保护制度的建立和完善,又反过来促进科技文化的 进步和科技文化市场的兴旺。实践表明,对知识产权的保护 及其保护程度如何,已成为当今衡量一个国家、一个地区文 明水准的标志之一。 党的十一届三中全会以来,我国在知识产权制度立法方 面已取得了一系列重要的进展。商标法、专利法、著作权法 和反不正当竞争法相继问世,与此相配套的三十多部行政法 规纷纷出台

第四章经济效率理论 第一节经济效率的实现 设在一个简单的经济系统中,有经济主体(厂商或消费者)1和2,并存在 两种资源:土地(L)和机器(M),生产且消费两种商品:

第六章自然资源的可持续利用 第一节自然资源分类 可耗竭资源假定在任何对人类有意义的时间范围内,资源质量保持不变,资源蕴藏量不再增加的资源称为可耗竭资源。耗竭既可看作是一个过程,也可以看作是一种状态

第五章物质平衡理论 第一节物质平衡的概念模型 1.从质量守恒定律的角度看待经济的生产和消费过程在经济系统中,生产活动和消费活动是在进行一系列的物理反应和化学反应,遵从质量守恒定律。严格说来,标准的经济学分配理论是关于服务的,而不是关于物质实体的。物质实体只是携带某种服务的载体