People and data O=∽uH<HOo∽dozug Understanding Customer Behavior Andreas S. Weigend, Ph D former chief scientist amazon. com weigend. com MP004 Outline提纲 laking decisions based on experiments(A-B tests) 以A-B实验为基础进行决策 b Three ingredients for innovation 革新的三大因素 b Revealed vs stated preferences 被揭示vs被说出的偏 反复的建模过程 御 Define定义→ Measure度量→ Describe描述→ Predict预测→Act行动 e Some insights into online customer behavior 一些对在线客户行为的理解 Levels of analysis and actionability o 2004 Weigend Associates LLC Informationatwww.weigend.com Handout page 1 of 14
© 2004 Weigend Associates LLC Information at www.weigend.com Handout page 1 of 14 W E I G E N D A S S O C I A T E S LLC People and Data: Understanding Customer Behavior Andreas S. Weigend, Ph.D. former chief scientist, amazon.com weigend.com 3 © 2004 by Weigend Associates LLC | www.weigend.com Outline 提纲 • Making decisions based on experiments (A-B tests) 以A-B实验为基础进行决策 Three ingredients for innovation 革新的三大因素 Revealed vs stated preferences 被揭示 vs 被说出的偏好 • The iterative process of modeling 反复的建模过程 Define 定义 Æ Measure 度量 Æ Describe 描述 Æ Predict 预测 Æ Act 行动 • Some insights into online customer behavior 一些对在线客户行为的理解 Levels of analysis and actionability Personalization vs Occasionalization Behavioral economics
amazon. com A动4$: to your Customers who bought Kind of Bke also bought: Proceed to Checkout re Brubeck, et Jonn used R new fro $5.79 our Price: 513.49 Used f r shaw gitt optio 0 Add to cart 0 Add to cart shopping cort Customers who bought items in your Shopping Cart also bought ( Edit shopping cart) Our Price: $11.982.00 Used R new frwn 56.90 O Proceed to Checkout Sigon to turn on I-Cick Customers who shopped for kind of Ble also shopped for Search Populor Music厂 All sMes:.@ d$16.01 to your order to qualfy PING CART Customers who bought Kind of Ble also bought e me qt w Dave Brubeck, et 0 a Love Supreme Jahn Davis our price: 59.99 厂 show gift options Used B new from $5.79 Our Price: s13.40 Used new from车9.50 uring checkout O Add to cat shopping cart Explore similar items Customers who bought items in your Shopping Cart also bought: e saxophone colossus Edit shopping carDD O Proceed to Chedout) Used R new fhrm $2.00 Sign in to tum on I-Clck 0 Add to cat 0 Add to cart Customers who shopped for Kind of Blue also shopped for o 2004 Weigend Associates LLC Informationatwww.weigend.com Handout page 2 of 14
© 2004 Weigend Associates LLC Information at www.weigend.com Handout page 2 of 14 4 © 2004 by Weigend Associates LLC | www.weigend.com 5 © 2004 by Weigend Associates LLC | www.weigend.com
Result: Right vs Left结果:左右对比的结果 变化 下订单者增加的比例 b Order size: Additional items( from the second page)put in cart 订单规模:(第2页开始)更多附加物品被放入购物车 b Relative increase: Blue band on right compared with blue band on left 相对增加:左右两边的蓝条相比 Existin C贴:+0.8 eople Data 人 数据 Research and science 研究与学科 Human decision making Statistic 人们做出决策 统计学 achine learning 金融 机器学习 E-Business 电子商务 行为经济学 ating 约会 计算营销 o 2004 Weigend Associates LLC Informationatwww.weigend.com Handout page 3 of 14
© 2004 Weigend Associates LLC Information at www.weigend.com Handout page 3 of 14 6 © 2004 by Weigend Associates LLC | www.weigend.com Result: Right vs Left 结果:左右对比的结果 • Metrics 度量准则 Conversion: Percentage of visits placing an order 变化： 下订单者增加的比例 Order size: Additional items (from the second page) put in cart 订单规模： （第2页开始）更多附加物品被放入购物车 • Some details 细节 Relative increase: Blue band on right compared with blue band on left 相对增加：左右两边的蓝条相比 +1.1% +1.4% +0.6% DVD ($): DVD Cart-adds: DVD 购物车： Cart-adds from 2nd page: 购物车从第二页增加： Existing customers 现有消费者 DVD ($): +1.0% Wishlist-adds: 购物预期增加： +0.8% Cart-adds from 2 +0.8% nd page: 在第二页购物车物品增加： All customers 所有的消费者 People 人 Data 数据 Human decision making: 人们做出决策 • Finance 金融 • E-Business 电子商务 • Dating 约会 Research and science: 研究与学科 • Statistics 统计学 • Machine learning 机器学习 • Behavioral economics 行为经济学 • Computational marketing 计算营销
Why now?为什么是现在? Data Implicit 成本 collected 隐式的 每日数据 (Clicks etc (点击等 Explicit Communication 显式的 通信 (Surveys etc. Storag (调研等) 1990 Time 20101990 Time 2010 时间 时间 e Data collected implicitly: Dramatic growth over time 隐式地采集数据:时刻保持急剧增长 e Data collected explicitly tacitly: Constant over time 显式地采集数据/无声的:时刻持续进行 atesLlcIwww.wer Three Ingredients For Innovation革新的三大因素 Data Methodology 数据 方法论 cence 计算机科学 统计学 Data base Research Data Analysis 数据库研究 探索数据分析 Machine Learning Domain expertise 知识领城 行为科学 Finance o 2004 Weigend Associates LLC Informationatwww.weigend.com Handout page 4 of 14
© 2004 Weigend Associates LLC Information at www.weigend.com Handout page 4 of 14 8 © 2004 by Weigend Associates LLC | www.weigend.com Why Now? 为什么是现在？ • Data collected implicitly: Dramatic growth over time 隐式地采集数据：时刻保持急剧增长 • Data collected explicitly / tacitly: Constant over time 显式地采集数据/无声的：时刻持续进行 Cost 成本 Storage 储存 Time 时间 1990 2010 Communication 通信 Explicit 显式的 (Surveys etc.) （调研等） Implicit 隐式的 (Clicks etc.) （点击等） Data collected per day 每日数据 采集 Time 时间 1990 2010 9 © 2004 by Weigend Associates LLC | www.weigend.com Three Ingredients For Innovation 革新的三大因素 Data 数据 Computer Science 计算机科学 Database Research 数据库研究 Methodology 方法论 Statistics 统计学 Data Analysis 探索数据分析 Machine Learning 机器学习 Domain expertise 知识领域 Behavioral Sciences 行为科学 Marketing 市场营销学 Finance 金融学
Research Questions研究问题 Characterize paths through website 分析通过网站的路径的特征 Modeling Online Browsing and Path Analysis Using Clickstream Data by Alan L Montgomery, Shibo Li, Kannan Srinivasan, and John C. Liechty e Understand and influence conversion 理解并影响转变 A Model of Web Site Browsing Behavior Estimated on Clickstream Data by Randolph E. Bucklin and Catarina Sismeiro, J of Marketing Research 40(2003) ."Dynamic Conversion Behavior at E-Commerce Sites by Wendy W. Moe and Peter S Fader. Management Science(2004) e Predict intention and modality of the visit 预测访问意图、目标和状态 s Seize the Occasion by Horacio D. Rozanski, Gerry Boilman, and Martin Lipman. e Compute and apply customer network value 测定并应用客户网络价值 by Pedro Domingos and Matt Richardson, KDD-2001. ACM Press. atesLlcIwww.wer xample: Invest $10M to Improve Customer Satisfaction 案例:投资1000万美元提高客户满意度 Base decision on analysis of behavioral data 以行为数据分析为 基础的决策 " So, as you can see, customer satisfaction is up considerably since phasing out the complaint forms. Consider思索 所以,如大家所见,自从我们停用投诉表以后,用户满意度得到了显著的上开 election?增加选择? Increase availability?提高可用性? Reduce clutter on web site?减少网站复杂性? Improve product search algorithms?改进产品搜索算法? o 2004 Weigend Associates LLC Informationatwww.weigend.com Handout page 5 of 14
© 2004 Weigend Associates LLC Information at www.weigend.com Handout page 5 of 14 10 © 2004 by Weigend Associates LLC | www.weigend.com Research Questions 研究问题 • Characterize paths through website 分析通过网站的路径的特征 “Modeling Online Browsing and Path Analysis Using Clickstream Data” by Alan L. Montgomery, Shibo Li, Kannan Srinivasan, and John C. Liechty. Marketing Science (2004). • Understand and influence conversion 理解并影响转变 “A Model of Web Site Browsing Behavior Estimated on Clickstream Data” by Randolph E. Bucklin and Catarina Sismeiro, J of Marketing Research 40 (2003). “Dynamic Conversion Behavior at E-Commerce Sites” by Wendy W. Moe and Peter S. Fader. Management Science (2004). • Predict intention and modality of the visit 预测访问意图、目标和状态 “Seize the Occasion” by Horacio D. Rozanski, Gerry Bollman, and Martin Lipman. Strategy and Business (2001). • Compute and apply customer network value 测定并应用客户网络价值 “Mining the Network Value of Customers” by Pedro Domingos and Matt Richardson, KDD-2001. ACM Press. Example: Invest $10M to Improve Customer Satisfaction 案例：投资1000万美元提高客户满意度 • Base decision on analysis of behavioral data 以行为数据分析为 基础的决策 Quantify 定量 Model 模型 Act 行为 • Consider 思索 Increase selection? 增加选择？ Increase availability? 提高可用性？ Reduce clutter on web site? 减少网站复杂性？ Improve product search algorithms? 改进产品搜索算法？ 所以，如大家所见，自从我们停用投诉表以后，用户满意度得到了显著的上升