Risk of being disrupted Passenger type Connecting Local Scheduled passenger mix 35% 65% Disrupted passenger mix 60% 40% Caused by flight cancellations 52% 100% Caused by missed connections 48% Although fewer planned connecting passengers, higher number are disrupted The risk of a passenger to be disrupted is 2.75 times greater for connecting (5.5% than for local (2%) Does not bode well for hub-and-spoke with banks
Risk of being disrupted ¾ Although fewer planned connecting passengers, higher number are disrupted ¾ The risk of a passenger to be disrupted is 2.75 times greater for connecting (5.5%) than for local (2%) ¾ Does not bode well for hub-and-spoke with banks Caused by flight cancellations 52% 100% Disrupted passenger mix 60% 40% Caused by missed connections Scheduled passenger mix Passenger type 48% 35% 65% Connecting Local
Passenger disruption: important factors Disruption time Route frequency 876 R2=0.95 3 10 62 0 56789101112 n routes with frequency > 81012141618202224 disruption time in window(+/- 1hour)
Passenger disruption: important factors • Disruption time & Route frequency R2 = 0.93 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 disruption time in window (+/- 1hour) Average delay of the disrupted passengers (hours) 5 RQ URXWHV ZLWK IUHTXHQF\ ! $Y 'HOD\ RI GLVUXSWHG SDVVHQJHUV KRXUV
Passenger service reliability study: Conclusions Disrupted passengers are important: 80% of the passengers delayed by more than 4 hours are disrupted Minimizing the sum of disrupted passengers while recovering the schedule might be a good idea ■■
Passenger service reliability study: Conclusions • Disrupted passengers are important: 80% of the passengers delayed by more than 4 hours are disrupted • Minimizing the sum of disrupted passengers while recovering the schedule might be a good idea…
Resource Dependability Ripple effects PC Cockpit Crew rest at smF SMF-LAX LAX-SMF CC SNA-SJC CC CC: deadheading SNA-RNO DFW-LAX DFW-SNA SNA-SEA ONT-LAX LAX-ONT Aircraft maintenance ONT PC: Pilot crew: cc: Cabin Crew: a: Aircraft Source: sabre, 1998
Resource Dependability: Ripple effects Source: Sabre, 1998 DFW-LAX LAX-ONT DFW-SNA LAX-SMF PC CC A PC CC A Cockpit Crew rest at SMF SNA-SJC SNA-RNO SNA-SEA SMF-LAX ONT-LAX Aircraft maintenance at ONT PC CC: deadheading A PC: Pilot Crew; CC: Cabin Crew; A: Aircraft
Disruption Impacts; Solutions and Constraints Disruption Impacts Solutions Constraints Flight delays Hold flights Aircraft balance Broken crew pairings Cancel flights Market protection Resource shortage ggregate flights Fleet/crew Crew unavailability Divert aircraft compatibility Disrupted maintenance Swap resources Resource positioning Gate problems Baggage handling Use spare aircraft. Maintenance problems Use reserve crews requirements · Crew legalities others · Deadhead crews Layover crews · Union contracts · Others
Disruption Impacts; Solutions and Constraints • Flight delays • Broken crew pairings • Resource shortage • Crew unavailability • Disrupted maintenance • Gate problems • Baggage handling problems • others • Hold flights • Cancel flights • Aggregate flights • Divert aircraft • Swap resources • Use spare aircraft • Use reserve crews • Deadhead crews • Layover crews • Aircraft balance • Market protection • Fleet/crew compatibility • Resource positioning • Maintenance requirements • Crew legalities • Union contracts • Others Disruption Impacts Solutions Constraints