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《船舶与海洋工程结构风险评估》课程教学资源（书籍文献）Offshore Risk Assessment，Principles, Modelling and Applications of QRA Studies，Jan Erik Vinnem，2nd Edition

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Prefaceto2ndEditionThis is the second edition of the book; the first edition was published in 1999.Theauthor has since then taken up a full professorship at University of Stavanger,Norway,teaching courses in offshorerisk analysis and management.This promp-tedaneedforan update of thebook.Thefact that several important developmentshave occurred since1999also implied that a major revision was required.Theoil pricehas reached itspeak in2006, at the highest level ever (nominally)But theeconomicclimate is at the sametime suchthat everyeffort ismadetoscrutinise how costs may be curtailed and profitmaximised. This will in manycircumstances call for careful consideration of risks, not just anoff the shelf riskanalysis',but a carefully planned and broad-ranging assessment of options andpossibilities to reduce risk.Norwegian offshore regulations were profoundly revised around the beginningofthenewcentury,withnewregulationbecominglawfrom2002.Thissecondedition of thebook captures some of theexperience and challenges fromthefirst 4-5 years of application of the new regulations.The important aspects of the newregulations are also briefly discussed, see Chapter 1.The first Norwegian White Paper on HES management in the offshore industrywas published in 2001, and the second in 2006. One of the needs identified in thispaper was the need to performmore extensiveR&Dwork in this field, and asignificantprogrammehasbeen runningngintheperiod2002-06.Someofthenewresults included in the second edition of thebookresult fromthat R&D initiative.About20 major accidents, mainly from theNorth Sea, arediscussed at somelength inChapter4,in ordertodemonstrate what problems havebeen experiencedin the past. I haveput more emphasis on this subject in the second edition, becauseit is essential that alsonewgenerationsmay learn from whatoccurred in thepast.Where available,observations about barrierperformance arediscussed in additiontothesequenceofeventsandlessonslearnedWhen itcomestomanagementofrisk anddecision-makingbased uponresultsfrom risk analyses, this is discussed separately in a book published in parallel withmy colleagueat University of Stavanger,Professor TerjeAven,alsopublishedbySpringer in 2007.Interested readers are referred to this work,‘Risk Management,withApplicationsfromtheOffshorePetroleumIndustry

Preface to 2nd Edition This is the second edition of the book; the first edition was published in 1999. The author has since then taken up a full professorship at University of Stavanger, Norway, teaching courses in offshore risk analysis and management. This prompted a need for an update of the book. The fact that several important developments have occurred since 1999 also implied that a major revision was required. The oil price has reached its peak in 2006, at the highest level ever (nominally). But the economic climate is at the same time such that every effort is made to scrutinise how costs may be curtailed and profit maximised. This will in many circumstances call for careful consideration of risks, not just an ‘off the shelf risk analysis’, but a carefully planned and broad-ranging assessment of options and possibilities to reduce risk. Norwegian offshore regulations were profoundly revised around the beginning of the new century, with new regulation becoming law from 2002. This second edition of the book captures some of the experience and challenges from the first 4- 5 years of application of the new regulations. The important aspects of the new regulations are also briefly discussed, see Chapter 1. The first Norwegian White Paper on HES management in the offshore industry was published in 2001, and the second in 2006. One of the needs identified in this paper was the need to perform more extensive R&D work in this field, and a significant programme has been running in the period 2002–06. Some of the new results included in the second edition of the book result from that R&D initiative. About 20 major accidents, mainly from the North Sea, are discussed at some length in Chapter 4, in order to demonstrate what problems have been experienced in the past. I have put more emphasis on this subject in the second edition, because it is essential that also new generations may learn from what occurred in the past. Where available, observations about barrier performance are discussed in addition to the sequence of events and lessons learned. When it comes to management of risk and decision-making based upon results from risk analyses, this is discussed separately in a book published in parallel with my colleague at University of Stavanger, Professor Terje Aven, also published by Springer in 2007. Interested readers are referred to this work, ‘Risk Management, with Applications from the Offshore Petroleum Industry’

x Preface Thanks are also expressed to Springer London publishers, in particular Professor Pham and Senior Editor Anthony Doyle, for agreeing to publish the second edition of this book, and for providing inspiring and valuable advice throughout the process. Simon Rees has given valuable assistance and support during production of the camera-ready manuscript. Appendix A presents an overview of some of the important software tools that are commonly used. Thanks to all the consultancies and software suppliers who have provided the information required for this appendix. In preparing the second edition of the book, I have been fortunate to have kind assistance from many colleagues and friends, who have provided invaluable support and assistance. First of all I want to express sincere thanks and gratitude to my friend David R Bayly, Crandon Consultants, who has also this time assisted with improvement of the English language, as well as providing technical comments and suggestions. I don’t know how I could have reached the same result without David’s kind assistance. My colleague at UiS, Professor Terje Aven has contributed significantly to the discussion of statistical treatment of risk and uncertainty. I am very pleased that this important improvement has been made. Dr Haibo Chen, Scandpower Risk Management Beijing Inc has contributed valuable text regarding the analysis of DP systems on mobile installations. Safetec Nordic AS has allowed use of several of their tools as input to the descriptions and cases. I want to express my gratitude for allowing this, and in particular express thanks to the following; Thomas Eriksen, Stein Haugen and Arnstein Skogset. There are also several people who have contributed with relevant information on various technical details; Finn Wickstrøm, Aker Kvaerner and Graham Dalzell, TBS3 . My daughter, Margrete, has assisted in the editing of the manuscript. Many thanks to all of you. Bryne, January 2007 Jan Erik Vinnem Professor University of Stavanger

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