RCTs and moments Long tradition in international trade research of iterating between statistics uncovered from micro data and developing ge models Simple Moments Nakamura& Steinsson 18 Unconditional means variances Firm heterogeneity- trading firms differ substantially from domestic oriented firms(Bernard and Jensen 95) Identified moments A target statistic obtained as a response to an identified structural shock (i.e, causal effect)Nakamura& Steinsson 18 Local labor market effects Trade shocks affect the performance of local labor markets(Topalova 10, Kovak 13, Autor et al 13, Caliendo et al 18, Adao et al 18) RCTs can provide moments that useful for discriminating between models and mechanisms
RCTs and Moments • Long tradition in international trade research of iterating between statistics uncovered from micro data and developing GE models • Simple Moments Nakamura & Steinsson 18 – Unconditional means, variances – Firm heterogeneity - trading firms differ substantially from domesticoriented firms (Bernard and Jensen 95) • Identified Moments – “A target statistic obtained as a response to an identified structural shock (i.e., causal effect)” Nakamura & Steinsson 18 – Local labor market effects • Trade shocks affect the performance of local labor markets (Topalova 10, Kovak 13, Autor et al 13, Caliendo et al 18, Adao et al 18) • RCTs can provide moments that useful for discriminating between models and mechanisms 6
Limits of rcts Balance between treatment and control groups occurs only in expectation Sample is a trial sample, rarely a true random sample from population Most rcts in economics are still not double blinded Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption ( SUTVA) Average treatment effects only identified if no spillovers GE Spillovers are important features of key trade insights (e. g. Eaton and Kortum 02: Hornbeck donaldson 16 External validity Good RCTs work hard to generate externally-valid research designs Can be achieved over time through many studies
Limits of RCTs • Balance between treatment and control groups occurs only in expectation – Sample is a trial sample, rarely a true random sample from population • Most RCTs in economics are still not double blinded • Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption (SUTVA) – Average treatment effects only identified if no spillovers – GE/Spillovers are important features of key trade insights (e.g., Eaton and Kortum 02; Hornbeck Donaldson 16) • External validity – Good RCTs work hard to generate externally-valid research designs – Can be achieved over time through many studies 7
Road Map Impact of Exporting on Firm Performance: Evidence from a Randomized Trial"(D. Atkin, A Osman), Quarterly Journalof Economics, 2017 Organizational Barriers to Technology Adoption: Evidence from Soccer-ball Producers in Pakistan"(D. Atkin, A Chaudhry S Chaudry and e. verhoogen) Quarterly ournal of EconomicS, 2017
Road Map • “Impact of Exporting on Firm Performance: Evidence from a Randomized Trial” (D. Atkin, A. Osman), Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2017 • “Organizational Barriers to Technology Adoption: Evidence from Soccer-ball Producers in Pakistan” (D. Atkin, A. Chaudhry, S. Chaudry and E. Verhoogen), Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2017 8
Road Map Impact of Exporting on Firm Performance: Evidence from a Randomized Trial"(D. Atkin, A Osman), Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2017 Organizational Barriers to Technology Adoption: Evidence from Soccer-ball Producers in Pakistan"(D. Atkin, A Chaudhry S Chaudry and e. verhoogen) Quarterly ournal of EconomicS, 2017
Road Map • “Impact of Exporting on Firm Performance: Evidence from a Randomized Trial” (D. Atkin, A. Osman), Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2017 • “Organizational Barriers to Technology Adoption: Evidence from Soccer-ball Producers in Pakistan” (D. Atkin, A. Chaudhry, S. Chaudry and E. Verhoogen), Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2017 9
Motivation Large differences in productivity between developed and developing world (Hall Jones 1999, Bloom & Van Reenan 2007 10
Motivation • Large differences in productivity between developed and developing world (Hall & Jones 1999, Bloom & Van Reenan 2007) 10