《中国金融市场 Chinese Financial Markets》补充阅读文献：pboc annual report（2013）

2013 ANNUAL REPORT Euro Area economies entered a weak recovery year-on-year growth of core CPI turned posi tive since June. and reached 1.3 percent in In 2013, European sovereign debt crisis December. which was a record high in five entered a relatively quiet period, and the econ- years. Labor market was stable, with unem omies of Euro Area stepped into recovery ployment rate for 2013 remained at about 4.0 again. As shown by statistics of the Eurostat, percent. However, in 2013, affected by fac the gDP of Euro Area grew by -0. 4 percent tors such as increasing costs of imports,trade in 2013, and the quarter-on-quarter real GDP deficit reached a record high of 11. 47 trillion owth rates registered-0.2 percent, 0.3 per yen, up 65.3 percent year on year. According cent, 0. 1 percent and 0.2 percent. Euro Area to IMF's statistics, gross debt of the Japanese Economic Sentiment Indicator that evalu- government as a share of GDP in 2013 was ates confidence of consumers and enterpris as high as 243. 2 percent went up for eight months successively, reach ing 100 in December, back to the long-term Growth of some emerging market econ- average since July 2011. Unemployment rate omies slowed down among rising risks remained high, standing at 12.0 percent since Some emerging market economies that the fourth quarter of 2013. Inflation remained experienced deteriorated balance of payments subdued, as Harmonized Index of Consumer decreasing foreign exchange reserves, and Prices(HIPC)rose only 0. 8 percent year on faced the challenges of grim fiscal and debt year in December and the inflation rate for situation, saw economic growth slowdown 2013 decreased to 0.5 percent. The delever- In May, as the U.S. Federal Reserve sent the aging process of Euro Area's banking sector signal of quantitative easing tapering, inter- remained slow, and credit activities were de- national capital inflows reversed, and some pressed. Meanwhile, slower growth of some emerging market economies saw large turbu- emerging market economies also had nega- lence in financial markets. After the Federal tive impact on Europes exports Reserve decided to delay moderating the pace of asset purchases, market fluctuation some Japanese economy strongly rebounded what declined Overall. the fundamentals of but slowed down later emerging market economies were still sound Supported by personal consumption, yen- depreciation-led export growth and large Development of the Global Financia scale fiscal stimulus, the Japanese economy Markets bounded strongly. Data from Cabinet of Ja- International foreign exchange markets pan showed that Japanese economy grew by 1.5 percent in real terms in 2013, with growth Affected by the expectation that U.S. Fed rates in respective quarters(quarter-on-quar- eral Reserve was to taper quantitative easing ter and annualized) registering 4.5 percent, and the weak global economic recovery, glob. 4. 1 percent, 0.9 percent and 0.7 percent. The al financial markets experienced relatively

2013 ANNUAL REPORT 20 Euro Area economies entered a weak recovery In 2013, European sovereign debt crisis entered a relatively quiet period, and the econ￾omies of Euro Area stepped into recovery again. As shown by statistics of the Eurostat, the GDP of Euro Area grew by -0.4 percent in 2013, and the quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth rates registered -0.2 percent, 0.3 per￾cent, 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent. Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator that evalu￾ates confidence of consumers and enterprises went up for eight months successively, reach￾ing 100 in December, back to the long-term average since July 2011. Unemployment rate remained high, standing at 12.0 percent since the fourth quarter of 2013. Inflation remained subdued, as Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HIPC) rose only 0.8 percent year on year in December and the inflation rate for 2013 decreased to 0.5 percent. The delever￾aging process of Euro Area’s banking sector remained slow, and credit activities were de￾pressed. Meanwhile, slower growth of some emerging market economies also had nega￾tive impact on Europe’s exports. Japanese economy strongly rebounded but slowed down later Supported by personal consumption, yen￾depreciation-led export growth and large scale fiscal stimulus, the Japanese economy rebounded strongly. Data from Cabinet of Ja￾pan showed that Japanese economy grew by 1.5 percent in real terms in 2013, with growth rates in respective quarters (quarter-on-quar￾ter and annualized) registering 4.5 percent, 4.1 percent, 0.9 percent and 0.7 percent. The year-on-year growth of core CPI turned posi￾tive since June, and reached 1.3 percent in December, which was a record high in five years. Labor market was stable, with unem￾ployment rate for 2013 remained at about 4.0 percent. However, in 2013, affected by fac￾tors such as increasing costs of imports, trade deficit reached a record high of 11.47 trillion yen, up 65.3 percent year on year. According to IMF’s statistics, gross debt of the Japanese government as a share of GDP in 2013 was as high as 243.2 percent. Growth of some emerging market econ￾omies slowed down among rising risks Some emerging market economies that experienced deteriorated balance of payments, decreasing foreign exchange reserves, and faced the challenges of grim fiscal and debt situation, saw economic growth slowdown. In May, as the U.S. Federal Reserve sent the signal of quantitative easing tapering, inter￾national capital inflows reversed, and some emerging market economies saw large turbu￾lence in financial markets. After the Federal Reserve decided to delay moderating the pace of asset purchases, market fluctuation some￾what declined. Overall, the fundamentals of emerging market economies were still sound. Development of the Global Financial Markets International foreign exchange markets Affected by the expectation that U.S. Fed￾eral Reserve was to taper quantitative easing and the weak global economic recovery, glob￾al financial markets experienced relatively

large fuctuations. Stock markets of advanced ing market economies increased dramatically economies rose sharply and registered record (Figure 5). At the end of 2013, the 10-year highs for several times. Some emerging mar- government bond yields in the U.S. and Ger ket economies saw turbulence in financial many closed at 3.006 percent and 1.941 pe markets and large exchange rate depreciation. cent, up 125 basis points and 64 basis points The exchange rate of the euro appreciated compared with the end of 2012, respectively slightly against the U.S. dollar, while Japa- Japanese 10-year government bond yields nese yen and most emerging market economy closed at 0.737 percent, decreasing nearly sev currencies depreciated against the U.S. dol- en basis points relative to the end of the previ- lar(Figure 4). As of the end of 2013, the ous year. 10-year government bond yields in exchange rate of euro against the U.S. dollar some emerging market economies continued closed at 1. 3745, up 4.2 percent compared to rise, among which the bond yields of Bra- with the end of 2012; whereas that of the Jap- zil, Turkey, Indonesia, South Africa and Rus anese yen against the dollar registered 105.30, experienced relatively large increases, up down 17.6 percent year on year. During 2013, 403 basis points, 372 basis points, 327 basis many emerging market economies saw sharp points, 153 basis points and 86 basis points depreciation of their currencies. Brazilian respectively year on year by the end of 2013 Real, Indian rupee, Indonesia Rupiah, South African Rand and russian ruble depreciated Figure 5 Government Bond Yields in Major by 13.3 percent, 11.0 percent, 20.8 percent, %_ 10-year Japanese _ 10-year U.S 10-year German 19.1 percent and 7. 1 percent respectively er Dollar Dollar/ Yen rlhs) Euro Dollar (rhs) Dollar Euro International stock markets 12345678910112 Month Stock markets in major advanced econo- mies went up strongly, while most emerg ing market economies experienced greater International bond markets fluctuations in stock markets(Figure 6). As f the end of 2013. dow Jones industrial Government bond yields in the U.S. and Average, EURO STOXX 50 and Nikkei 225 Germany went up, while the yields on Japa- closed at 16, 576.66 points, 2, 919.42 points nese government bonds slid slightly, and the and 16, 291. 31 points, respectively, up 26.5 yields on government bonds in some emerg- percent, 13. 3 percent and 56.7 percent. On 21■

2.5 3.0 3.5 % 日本10年期国债收益率 美国10年期国债收益率 德国10年期国债收益率 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 月份 2.5 3.0 3.5 % 日本10年期国债收益率 美国10年期国债收益率 德国10年期国债收益率 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 月份

2013 ANNUAL REPORT Figure 6 Stock Market Indices went up by 8.4 percent year on year, and the prices of London brent oil futures remained dustrial Average(Ihs)-Nikkei 225(Ihs) TOXX 3O basically the same as at the end of 2012 World Economic Outlook and Major Risks Going forward, ma economy include the following: first, the 2400 uncertainties remain as for the U.S. quantita- 123456 8 9 10 11 12 Month tive easing tapering and its impacts, and the the other hand, affected by expectations of foreign exchange markets, asset prices and quantitative easing tapering, stock markets commodities prices remain to be seen; sec in some emerging market economies saw ond, the economic recovery prospect in the increased volatility, among which the stock Euro Area is not clear as the region is still markets in Indonesia, Turkey and India faced with numerous long-term and struc perienced large fluctuations from June tural problems; third, the Japanese economy September, reaching 20.4 percent, 23 pe er- lacks internal growth momentum, and it cent and 15.3 percent, respectively highly uncertain whether the effect of short International commodities markets term fiscal and monetary stimulus could last for long; fourth, some emerging market The price of gold retreated, while the economies are still challenged by the po price of crude oil fluctuated substantially tential negative impacts of U.S. quantitative (Figure 7). During 2013, international price easing tapering and the risk of large capital of gold kept declining, and closed at 1, 204.9 outflows. and some long-term structural dollars per ounce at the end of 2013, down problems that constrain economic develop 28 percent year on year. Meanwhile, the ment cannot be meaningfully solved in the prices of New York light crude oil futures near future. Maior uncertainties remain with Figure 7 Gold and Crude Oil Prices the global growth outlook. In the World eco- n International Markets in 2013 nomic Outlook published in April 2014, the US T 8 IMF projected that global growth rate will 1 60 reach 3.6 percent in 2014, and the growth 1 1900 projections for the U.S., the Euro Area, Ja pan and emerging market economies are 2.8 percent, 1.2 percent, 1. 4 percent and 4.9 per Month

2013 ANNUAL REPORT 22 the other hand, affected by expectations of quantitative easing tapering, stock markets in some emerging market economies saw increased volatility, among which the stock markets in Indonesia, Turkey and India ex￾perienced large fluctuations from June to September, reaching 20.4 percent, 23.0 per￾cent and 15.3 percent, respectively. International commodities markets The price of gold retreated, while the price of crude oil fluctuated substantially (Figure 7). During 2013, international price of gold kept declining, and closed at 1,204.9 dollars per ounce at the end of 2013, down 28 percent year on year. Meanwhile, the prices of New York light crude oil futures went up by 8.4 percent year on year, and the prices of London Brent oil futures remained basically the same as at the end of 2012. World Economic Outlook and Major Risks Going forward, major risks in the global economy include the following: first, the uncertainties remain as for the U.S. quantita￾tive easing tapering and its impacts, and the trends of cross-border capital flows, global foreign exchange markets, asset prices and commodities prices remain to be seen; sec￾ond, the economic recovery prospect in the Euro Area is not clear as the region is still faced with numerous long-term and struc￾tural problems; third, the Japanese economy lacks internal growth momentum, and it is highly uncertain whether the effect of short￾term fiscal and monetary stimulus could last for long; fourth, some emerging market economies are still challenged by the po￾tential negative impacts of U.S. quantitative easing tapering and the risk of large capital outflows, and some long-term structural problems that constrain economic develop￾ment cannot be meaningfully solved in the near future. Major uncertainties remain with the global growth outlook. In the World Eco￾nomic Outlook published in April 2014, the IMF projected that global growth rate will reach 3.6 percent in 2014, and the growth projections for the U.S., the Euro Area, Ja￾pan and emerging market economies are 2.8 percent, 1.2 percent, 1.4 percent and 4.9 per￾cent, respectively. Source: Reuters. Figure 6 Stock Market Indices of Major Economies in 2013 2 400 2 500 2 600 2 700 2 800 2 900 3 000 8 000 9 000 10 000 11 000 12 000 13 000 14 000 15 000 16 000 17 000 18 000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 道琼斯工业平均指数（左轴） 东京日经225指数（左轴） 欧元区STOXX50指数（右轴） 月份 2 400 2 500 2 600 2 700 2 800 2 900 3 000 8 000 9 000 10 000 11 000 12 000 13 000 14 000 15 000 16 000 17 000 18 000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 道琼斯工业平均指数（左轴） 东京日经225指数（左轴） 欧元区STOXX50指数（右轴） 月份 Dow Jones Industrial Average (lhs) Nikkei 225 (lhs) EURO STOXX 50 (rhs) Month 2 400 2 500 2 600 2 700 2 800 2 900 3 000 8 000 9 000 10 000 11 000 12 000 13 000 14 000 15 000 16 000 17 000 18 000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 道琼斯工业平均指数（左轴） 东京日经225指数（左轴） 欧元区STOXX50指数（右轴） 月份 Source: Reuters. 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800 110 115 120 125 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 月份 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800 110 115 120 125 布伦特原油期货(左轴) 纽约轻质原油期货(左轴) 现货黄金（右轴） 美元/桶 美元/盎司 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 月份 USD/bbl Brent crude futures (lhs) New York light futures (lhs) Month Gold (rhs) USD/t oz Figure 7 Gold and Crude Oil Prices in International Markets in 2013

MONETARY POLICY In 2013, in accordance with the overall arrangements of the CPC Central Commit- tee and the State Council, the PBC followed the principle of making progress while maintaining stability, continued its sound monetary policy, innovated macroeconomic management strategies and methods. The PBC remained sober-minded, maintained a focus on policy measures, neither loosening nor tightening the supply of money instead whenever necessary it made fine-tunings and pre-emptive adjustments with appropriate strength. It made efforts to strike a balance among preserving stable eco- nomic growth, adjusting the economic structure, promoting reform and preventing risks, which helped create a rather stable monetary and financial environment. For the next step, the PBC will continue its sound monetary policy, stick to the stance of main taining stable aggregates and optimizing the structure, maintain the stability and con tinuity of policy, make macroeconomic measures more forward looking, targeted, and coordinated, promote reform amid the macroeconomic management, and allow the market to play a more decisive role in resource allocation Monetary Policy Measures in 2013 policy and the flexibility of microeconomic policy, and made progress while maintain 2013 was the year when the Third Ple ing stability. It continued the sound monetary nary Session of the 18 CPC Central Com olicy, made innovations in macroeconomic mittee was held successfully, and it was also management, remained sober-minded, main- a crucial year for the implementation of the tained a focus on policy measures, neither 12Five-year Plan. In view of the complex tightening nor relaxing the supply of liquidity and ever-changing domestic and international in the financial system. Pre-emptive adjust economic and financial situations and ments and fine-tunings were carried out in a cordance with the overall arrangements of the timely and appropriate m CPC Central Committee and the State Coun- Flexible open market operations il, the PBC followed the requirements of maintaining the stability of macroeconomic In 2013, the expectations of the major 23■

23 Monetary Policy In 2013, in accordance with the overall arrangements of the CPC Central Commit￾tee and the State Council, the PBC followed the principle of making progress while maintaining stability, continued its sound monetary policy, innovated macroeconomic management strategies and methods. The PBC remained sober-minded, maintained a focus on policy measures, neither loosening nor tightening the supply of money, instead whenever necessary it made fine-tunings and pre-emptive adjustments with appropriate strength. It made efforts to strike a balance among preserving stable eco￾nomic growth, adjusting the economic structure, promoting reform and preventing risks, which helped create a rather stable monetary and financial environment. For the next step, the PBC will continue its sound monetary policy, stick to the stance of main￾taining stable aggregates and optimizing the structure, maintain the stability and con￾tinuity of policy, make macroeconomic measures more forward looking, targeted, and coordinated, promote reform amid the macroeconomic management, and allow the market to play a more decisive role in resource allocation. policy and the flexibility of microeconomic policy, and made progress while maintain￾ing stability. It continued the sound monetary policy, made innovations in macroeconomic management, remained sober-minded, main￾tained a focus on policy measures, neither tightening nor relaxing the supply of liquidity in the financial system. Pre-emptive adjust￾ments and fine-tunings were carried out in a timely and appropriate manner. Flexible open market operations In 2013, the expectations of the major Monetary Policy Measures in 2013 2013 was the year when the Third Ple￾nary Session of the 18th CPC Central Com￾mittee was held successfully, and it was also a crucial year for the implementation of the 12th Five-year Plan. In view of the complex and ever-changing domestic and international economic and financial situations and in ac￾cordance with the overall arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Coun￾cil, the PBC followed the requirements of maintaining the stability of macroeconomic

2013 ANNUAL REPORT economies'policies changed and the direc- short-term capital caused by many factors tions of capital flows were quite uncertain. and promoted the smooth operation of the In early 2013, when the major developed money market interest rate economies enhanced their quantitative eas- Innovations were timely adopted with ing policies, Chinas foreign capital inflows monetary policy instruments and al increased substantially. As a result, liquidity proaches in the banking system was relatively abun dant and there was great pressure for mon- According to the need of macroeconomic etary and credit expansion. In May and June, management and changes in the market en- with stronger market expectations of taper- vironment, the PBC created new instruments ing of quantitative easing by the U.S.Fed such as SLO and Standing Lending Facilities eral Reserve and the downward pressures on (SLF)at the beginning of the year. In view the domestic economy, the inflow of foreign of the increased volatility in liquidity supply exchange slowed down. At the same time, and demand and the rather large surplus of due to some short-term factors such as cen- overall balance of payments, the PBC decided tralized corporate tax payments were made, to roll over part of the matured 3-year ce there was a temporary decrease in the supply bank It combined moderate freezing of of liquidity. After August and September, long- term liquidity with supplying of neces as the Federal Reserve delayed tapering sary short-term liquidity, took into account the quantitative easing and the effects of the double requirements of prudent monetary China's reform measures on growth gradu- policy, namely, maintaining moderate liquid ally unfolded, inflows of foreign exchange ity and stabilizing the money market, and pro- again increased significantly. Facing highly actively responded to the increase in foreign uncertain external spill-over effects. the PBc exchange inflows since this September strengthened its analysis and monitoring of the banking system liquidity situation, used a Full play was given to the role of macro- prudential policies in counter-cyclical mix of tools including repo and reverse repo management and structural guidance operations, issuance of central bank bills and the Short-term Liquidity Operation(SLO)to Based on the domestic and global eco flexibly conduct the open market operations. nomic and financial developments, the Pre-emptive adjustments and fine-tunings soundness of financial institutions and the were carried out in a timely and aj implementation of credit policy, the pbc ate manner and the valve of overall liquid- timely adjusted the parameters of the differ ity was well controlled. All these measures entiated reserve requirements to guide stable effectively dealt with the fluctuations of the and reasonable credit growth, improved the

2013 ANNUAL REPORT 24 economies’ policies changed and the direc￾tions of capital flows were quite uncertain. In early 2013, when the major developed economies enhanced their quantitative eas￾ing policies, China’s foreign capital inflows increased substantially. As a result, liquidity in the banking system was relatively abun￾dant and there was great pressure for mon￾etary and credit expansion. In May and June, with stronger market expectations of taper￾ing of quantitative easing by the U.S. Fed￾eral Reserve and the downward pressures on the domestic economy, the inflow of foreign exchange slowed down. At the same time, due to some short-term factors such as cen￾tralized corporate tax payments were made, there was a temporary decrease in the supply of liquidity. After August and September, as the Federal Reserve delayed tapering the quantitative easing and the effects of China’s reform measures on growth gradu￾ally unfolded, inflows of foreign exchange again increased significantly. Facing highly uncertain external spill-over effects, the PBC strengthened its analysis and monitoring of the banking system liquidity situation, used a mix of tools including repo and reverse repo operations, issuance of central bank bills and the Short-term Liquidity Operation (SLO) to flexibly conduct the open market operations. Pre-emptive adjustments and fine-tunings were carried out in a timely and appropri￾ate manner and the valve of overall liquid￾ity was well controlled. All these measures effectively dealt with the fluctuations of the short-term capital caused by many factors and promoted the smooth operation of the money market interest rate. Innovations were timely adopted with monetary policy instruments and ap￾proaches According to the need of macroeconomic management and changes in the market en￾vironment, the PBC created new instruments such as SLO and Standing Lending Facilities (SLF) at the beginning of the year. In view of the increased volatility in liquidity supply and demand and the rather large surplus of overall balance of payments, the PBC decided to roll over part of the matured 3-year central bank bills. It combined moderate freezing of long-term liquidity with supplying of neces￾sary short-term liquidity, took into account the double requirements of prudent monetary policy, namely, maintaining moderate liquid￾ity and stabilizing the money market, and pro￾actively responded to the increase in foreign exchange inflows since this September. Full play was given to the role of macro￾prudential policies in counter-cyclical management and structural guidance Based on the domestic and global eco￾nomic and financial developments, the soundness of financial institutions and the implementation of credit policy, the PBC timely adjusted the parameters of the differ￾entiated reserve requirements to guide stable and reasonable credit growth, improved the