Learning Curve 能 Every time production 0.6 命令令令命命令令全命的的的 doubles. cost is reduced 04 b=0.9 0.55 by a factor 0.2 of0.9 40 Unit number Typical LC slopes: Fab 90%, Assembly 75%0, Material 98% 9/19/2002 16885 AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY
9/19/2002 16.885 AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY Learning Curve 0.55 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 Unit number Cost of unit b=0.9 Every time production doubles, cost is reduced by a factor of 0.9 Typical LC slopes: Fab 90%, Assembly 75%, Material 98%
Elements of a cost model Engineering Data Build scheer performance g 2000201020202030 A Recur Component breakdown COST Wing Fuselage Winglet Skin Ribs MODEL NRC/b Weight Subparts/Ib on-kecurming Learning curve NRC Distribution nit number 2003200720112015 9/19/2002 16885 AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY
9/19/2002 16.885 AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY Elements of a Cost Model Non-Recurring Cost Recurring Cost COST MODEL 0 40 80 120 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year Number of planes Build Schedule Plane Wing Winglet Skin Ribs Fuselage Weight RC/lb Subparts/lb NRC/lb Component Breakdown 0 0.4 0.8 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 Unit number Cost of unit Learning Curve Engineering Data & Performance 0 1 2 2003 2007 2011 2015 Year NRC ($B) NRC Distribution
Typical Cost Modeling (5 1. Take empirical data from past programs 2. Perform regression to get variation witl selected parameters, e.g. cost VS weight 3. Apply judgment factors" for your case e.g. configuration factors, complexity factors, composite factors There is widespread belief that aircraft manufacturers do not know what it actually costs to turn out their current products 9/19/2002 16885 AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY
9/19/2002 16.885 AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY Typical Cost Modeling 1. Take empirical data from past programs. 2. Perform regression to get variation with selected parameters, e.g. cost vs. weight. 3. Apply “judgment factors” for your case. e.g. configuration factors, complexity factors, composite factors. There is widespread belief that aircraft manufacturers do not know what it actually costs to turn out their current products
Cost Modeling 能 Aircraft is broken down into modules Inner wing, outer wing, Modules are classified by type Wing, Empennage, Fuselage Cost per pound specified for each module type Calibrated from existing cost models Modified by other factors Learning effects Commonality effects Assembly Integration: a separate"module 2 cost categories: development manufacturing Production run: a collection of modules 9/19/2002 16885 AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY
9/19/2002 16.885 AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY Cost Modeling • Aircraft is broken down into modules – Inner wing, outer wing, … – Modules are classified by type • Wing, Empennage, Fuselage, … • Cost per pound specified for each module type – Calibrated from existing cost models – Modified by other factors • Learning effects • Commonality effects • Assembly & Integration: a separate “module” • 2 cost categories: development & manufacturing Production run: a collection of modules
Cost Modeling 能 Plane Landing Centerbody Wing Gear Propulsion Systems Payloads Final Assembly At this /eve. the degree of detail can Winglet Outer Inner range from e.g. wing to“ rivet Identifier Weight Area RC per Subparts NRC per NRC time pound per pound pound distribution Labor Material Support Tooling Engineering Other Equipme 9/19/2002 16885 AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY
9/19/2002 16.885 AEROSPACE COMPUTATIONAL DESIGN LABORATORY Cost Modeling Plane Centerbody Landing Gear Propulsion Systems Final Assembly Payloads Winglet Outer Wing Inner Wing Wing … Identifier Weight RC per pound Subparts per pound Area Labor Material & Equipment Support At this level, the degree of detail can range from e.g. “wing” to “rivet”. NRC per pound Tooling Engineering Other NRC time distribution