一、19世纪以前的旅行活动发展 二、近代旅游和旅游业的开端 三、现代旅游迅速发展的原因

General GMM formula Let y, be an h-vector of variables that are observed at date t, let denote an unknown vector of coefficients, h(e, y,) Be an r-vector real function. Let denote true value of 0, and suppose this true value is

Our task How to estimate and test discount factor model. Ep,=E(m (data 1, parameter)) 1. Bring an asset pricing model to data to estimate free parameters. For example, parameter,yinm=B(c+1/c)-y Or the b in m=b f 2. Evaluate the model, is it a good model or not? Is another model better?

Discount model is in terms of conditional moments The first order condition is,u'( BE, [u'(c )x 1] The expectation is conditional expectation on investor's time t information; The basic pricing equation is P, =E, (m +1X1+)

Introduction In this class, we again look at the stock return data, but with a very different view point; Previously, we examined the data through the \eyes\of CAPM. We had a noble intension, although it didn't work very well; Now we are going to get our hands \dirty\, and plunge

Predictions and applications CAPM: in market equilibrium, investors are only rewarded for bearing the market risk; APT: in the absence of arbitrage, investors are only rewarded for bearing the factor risk Applications: ---professional portfolio managers: evaluating security returns and

Introduction The consumption-based model as a complete answer to most asset pricing question in principle, does not work well in practice; This observation motivates effects to tie the discount factor m to other data; Linear factor pricing models are most popular models of this sort in finance; They dominate discrete-time empirical work

Consumption-Based Model and Basic Pricing model Basic question to decide for an investor: (1) how much to save; (2)how much to consume; (3)what portfolio of assets to hold. Pricing equation come from the first order condition for this decision

Outline MM ean-variance analysis; ean-variance analysis and utility maximization; Does high moment matter?

Discussion Points How to measure returns? How to choose benchmark? How to adjust for risk? Performance attribution. Active return and risk